Tran of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement
September 18, 2024
鲍威尔主席新闻发布会开幕词2024年9月18日
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years.The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7 percent to an estimated 2.2 percent as of August. We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.
下午好。我和我的同事们仍然坚定不移地致力于实现我们的双重使命目标: 为了美国人民的利益,实现最大限度的就业和稳定物价。我们的经济总体上很强劲,在过去两年里,我们在实现我们的目标方面取得了重大进展。劳动力市场已经从以前的过热状态冷却下来。通货膨胀率已经从7% 的峰值大幅下降到8月份的2.2% 。我们致力于通过支持最大限度的就业和使通货膨胀率回到2% 的目标来保持我们的经济实力。
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
今天,联邦公开市场委员会决定通过降低1/2个百分点的政策利率来减少政策约束的程度。这一决定反映了我们日益增长的信心,即通过适当调整我们的政策立场,劳动力市场的力量可以在适度增长和通货膨胀可持续下降到2% 的情况下保持下去。我们还决定继续减持证券。在简单回顾经济发展后,我会就货币政策作进一步的阐述。
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first half of the year, and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year. In the housing sector, investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the U.S. economy over the past year. In our Summary of Economic Projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid, with a median projection of 2 percent over the next few years.
最近的指标表明,经济活动继续稳步扩大。今年上半年,美国国内生产总值(GDP)年增长率为2.2% ,现有数据显示,本季度的增长速度大致相当。消费者支出的增长保持了弹性,设备和无形资产的投资也从去年的疲软状态中有所回升。在房地产领域,投资在第一季度强劲增长后,在第二季度有所回落。过去一年,供应状况的改善支撑了需求的弹性和美国经济的强劲表现。在我们的《经济预测摘要》中,委员会与会者普遍预计 GDP 增长将保持稳定,未来几年的预测中值为2%。
In the labor market, conditions have continued to cool. Payroll job gains averaged 116 thousand per month over the past three months, a notable stepdown from the pace seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate has moved up but remains low at 4.2 percent. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed. Overall, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of elevated inflationary pressures. The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4 percent at the end of this year, 4 tenths higher than projected in June.
在劳动力市场,情况继续降温。在过去三个月中,就业人数平均每月增加11.6万人,比今年早些时候的增长速度明显下降。失业率有所上升,但仍保持在4.2% 的低位。过去一年,名义工资增长有所放缓,就业岗位与就业人员之间的差距也有所缩小。总体而言,一系列广泛的指标表明,劳动力市场目前的状况不像2019年疫情爆发前那么紧张。劳动力市场不是通货膨胀压力上升的根源。SEP 对今年年底失业率的预测中位数为4.4% ,比6月份的预测高出0.4个百分点。
Inflation has eased notably over the past two years but remains above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2 percent over the 12 months ending in August; and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent. Longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households,businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year, somewhat lower than projected in June. Thereafter, the median projection is 2 percent.
通货膨胀在过去两年已经明显缓解,但仍然高于我们2% 的长期目标。根据消费物价指数和其他数据所作的估计显示,截至8月底的12个月内,个人消费物价总水平上升了2.2% ; 剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别,核心个人消费物价上升了2.7% 。长期通胀预期似乎仍然稳定,这反映在对家庭、企业和预测者的广泛调查以及来自金融市场的措施中。SEP 对个人消费支出总体通胀率的预估中位数为今年2.3% ,明年2.1% ,略低于6月的预估。此后,中位数预测为2%。
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. For much of the past three years,inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal, and labor market conditions were extremely tight. Our primary focus had been on bringing down inflation, and appropriately so. We are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power,especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.
我们的货币政策行动遵循促进美国人民最大限度就业和稳定物价的双重使命。在过去三年的大部分时间里,通货膨胀率远远高于我们2% 的目标,劳动力市场状况极其紧张。我们的主要关注点一直是降低通货膨胀,而且这样做是恰当的。我们敏锐地意识到,高通货膨胀会带来严重的困难,因为它会侵蚀购买力,尤其是对于那些最无力支付食品、住房和交通等必需品更高成本的人来说。
Our restrictive monetary policy has helped restore the balance between aggregate supply and demand, easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remain well anchored. Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends: Inflation is now much closer to our objective, and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
我们的限制性货币政策帮助恢复了总供给与需求之间的平衡,缓解了通胀压力,并确保了通胀预期保持稳定。我们在过去一年中采取的耐心措施已经产生了效果: 通货膨胀现在更加接近我们的目标,我们对通货膨胀可持续地向2% 靠近有了更大的信心。
As inflation has declined and the labor market has cooled, the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased. We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
随着通货膨胀的下降和劳动力市场的降温,通货膨胀的上行风险已经减少,就业的下行风险已经增加。我们现在认为,实现我们的就业和通胀目标所面临的风险大致相当,我们关注我们双重使命双方面临的风险。
In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, at today’s meeting the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 4-3/4 percent to 5 percent. This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance. We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.
鉴于通货膨胀和风险平衡方面的进展,在今天的会议上,委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标范围降低0.5个百分点,至4-3/4% 至5% 。我们政策立场的重新调整将有助于维持经济和劳动力市场的强劲,并将继续推动通货膨胀的进一步发展,因为我们已经开始走向一个更加中立的立场。我们没有在任何预设的航线上。我们将继续通过会议作出决定。
We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
我们知道,过快减少政策约束可能会阻碍通胀方面的进展。与此同时,过于缓慢地减少限制可能会不适当地削弱经济活动和就业。在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间时,委员会将仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡。
In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate, based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. If the economy evolves as expected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4 percent at the end of this year and 3.4 percent at the end of 2025. These median projections are lower than in June,consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment, as well as the changed balance of risks. These projections, however, are not a Committee plan or decision.
在我们的 SEP 中,联邦公开市场委员会的参与者根据每个参与者对未来最有可能出现的情况的判断,写下了他们对联邦基金利率适当路径的个人评估。如果经济像预期的那样发展,中间参与者预计联邦基金利率的适当水平将在今年年底达到4.4% ,在2025年年底达到3.4% 。这些预测中值低于6月份,与通胀率下降、失业率上升以及风险平衡发生变化的预测一致。然而,这些预测并不是委员会的计划或决定。
As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond. Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.
随着经济的发展,货币政策将进行调整,以最大限度地促进我们的就业和物价稳定目标。如果经济保持稳健,通货膨胀持续,我们可以更慢地收回政策约束。如果劳动力市场意外疲软或者通货膨胀下降速度超过预期,我们亦准备好做出回应。政策完全有能力应对我们在执行双重任务时面临的风险和不确定因素。
The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the ry. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. 美联储的货币政策有两个目标: 最大限度地提高就业率和稳定物价。我们仍然致力于支持最大限度的就业,将通货膨胀率降低到2% 的目标,并保持较长期的通货膨胀预期。我们在实现这些目标方面的成功对所有美国人都很重要。我们知道我们的行动影响到全国的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了我们的公共使命。我们美联储将竭尽全力实现最大限度的就业和价格稳定目标。
图1:本次议息会议点阵图
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